Macroeconomic Forecasting Essay

Perform a macroeconomic forecast to the best of your ability with support from information currently in
the news. Find eight to twelve (8-12) worthwhile articles about it from either newspapers or news
(including business) magazines, credible blogs, research institute reports, government reports, or peer-
reviewed articles. The textbook and sources of data or charts do not count toward the 8-12 references
described here. You may substitute appropriate websites—but you want to be very careful of bias and
reliability of information.
Write an essay that is less than 3 pages in textual material. Title page, reference list page, and
appendices with exhibits do not count toward the 3-page maximum. The instructor strongly urges that
students follow the APA Style Manual, but any consistently applied style standard can be used.
This short 3-page essay will outline and explore a forecast of the U.S. economy. It should demonstrate
your mastery of the course material by your explanation of numerous topics and issues. This may include
among other things:
• A forecast of the U.S. economy or the global economy
1. Describe current conditions, fluctuations, and trends.
2. Think about how one or the other of the four components of GDP (consumption spending,
investment spending, government spending, and next export spending) are trending and
why.
3. Think about other indicators that seem to help predict trends in important macroeconomic
variables.
• A prediction of likely U.S. federal government and Federal Reserve policy actions.
1. Think about what policymakers are likely to do—from theory or from news reports.
2. Think about what they should do; make a recommendation of U.S. government policy
actions.
• An analysis of the likely outcomes of various trends identified with some special attention to
U.S. government or Federal Reserve policy actions.
• If you are ambitious, describe the implications for a particular business or industry.
Your forecast should use the key concepts and terminology of macroeconomics within your presentation.
You should rely on textbook definitions, explanations, and analyses—but always remember application,
rather than regurgitation. is important. You should use graphical or tabular displays of data with
commentary.
The essay should be well-organized, coherent, and integrated. The essay should be consistently
formatted, written, and organized from start to end.
You must have the textbook and additional data and chart sources with about 8-12 fact-based “news”
sources represented. At a minimum, analytical tables or charts displaying real GDP, inflation rates, and
unemployment should be displayed.