Hypothesis testing

Hypothesis Testing is the use of statistics to determine the probability that a given claim is true.

In Part II of this project, you will choose a data set, review claims and perform hypothesis testing and make a decision. You will then complete a write-up that includes the calculations.

The government logs the number of documented births, deaths, marriages and divorces; however, it is possible to have undocumented cases. In part II of this project, you are going to test claims about total births, deaths, marriages and divorces.

Deliverables

Choose a Data Set.
Go to https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/nvsr.htm (Links to an external site.)
In the search bar type: Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths

screenshot of CDC website toolbar
Pick a DataSet and download the PDF document and make note of the volume, number, and date. For example you could use the National Vital Statistics Reports,
screenshot of National Vital Statistics Reports webpage
Pick the same month/year combination for each data set. For example, choosing September of 2009.

screenshot of example dataset
Preliminary Calculations
Create a summary table for 1. Live Births, 2. Deaths, 3. Marriages, and 4. Divorces highlighting the mean, median, sample standard deviation, minimum and maximum values for each the data sets. You will have FOUR tables using the list of values of each state, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico (You will have 52 numbers for each data set).
Summary Table for _________
Mean
Median
Standard Deviation
Minimum
Maximum
Hypothesis Testing
With the information that you gather from the summary tables, test the following (you can use excel when appropriate):

Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of births is over 5000 in the United States and territories at the 0.05 level of significance.
Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of deaths is equal to 6000 in the United States and territories at the 0.10 level of significance.
Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of marriages is greater or equal to 2500 in the United States and territories at the .05 level of significance.
Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of divorces is less than or equal to 4000 in the United States and territories at the 0.10 level of significance.
For each of the tests above, in your report, be sure to—

Clearly state a null and alternative hypothesis
Give the value of the test statistic
Report the P-Value
Clearly state your conclusion (Reject the Null or Fail to Reject the Null)
Explain what your conclusion means in context of the data.
Lastly, propose and conduct your own test of hypothesis about the Birth, Death, Marriage and Divorce data that you have been analyzing. Make sure to follow the five steps above.

Required Software

Microsoft Office: Word and Excel