Analyzing situations of human rights crisises in Myanmar

The Research Project
The most critical element of this course and your grade is the research report and forecast you will develop to analyze the likelihood of a significant human rights crisis in the nation you are studying. Each student will be assigned an “at-risk” nation to study. We will focus on those countries where human rights crises appear to be most likely to arise (e.g., Syria), rather than those states that are at an extremely low likelihood of experiencing such an event (e.g., Sweden). Students will work with the professor to identify the nation they are most interested in from the following list:
(I have selected the country of Myanmar)
For your research papers you will need to do the following:
You will analyze this information for two types of relevant information. First, you will want to determine if there are enduring characteristics and conditions that make a nation more susceptible to human rights crises, such as poverty, unstable government, ethnic divisions and other enduring and/or structural problems. These conditions will be part of our baseline understanding of the likelihood of a human rights crisis at any given time. These are risk factors that make a nation more susceptible to a human rights crisis. Second, you will also need to analyze the actors in a country whose interests, motives and capabilities must be understood, to predict their actions. We will want to know their political interests, the alliances among actors, their capabilities for causing trouble and so forth to determine who is most likely to instigate a crisis, for what reasons, and how. These are what we will call the precipitating factors and human behaviors that make a human rights crisis more likely. To draw an analogy, we can say that the underlying conditions are the firewood; the actors and their behaviors are the match; and the human rights crisis is the fire. you will write your paper according to all the requirements below. Your paper grade will be based on how closely and how well your adhere to these research paper requirements.
Students will address the following questions in their papers:
1) Who are the key actors in a country that would be involved (perpetrator, victim, bystander, etc.) in a human rights crisis, and what are their political interests. What makes each of these actors important?
2) Why would the perpetrators target a particular group of people for human rights violations—are they political opponents? Are the two sides members of opposing ethnic, religious or other types of identify groups that have a history of animosity? Are the individuals recent arrivals, such as refugees or internally displaced persons who somehow pose a threat to another group? What rationale, however, contrived or immoral is offered to explain why a group of people should be targeted with violence? You might also consider if these are purely local reasons or if there is a rationale (again, no matter how abhorrent) that seeks to justify the violence, such as racism.
3) Are there particular events regarding the “political opportunity structure” (e.g., elections, military coup, economic meltdown) or other events that create openings for actors to violate human rights in a way that, perhaps, they might not do during more normal and stable times? Is the balance of power in a society changing? Has there been an influx of refugees or an economic collapse? What role do these specific events play in providing an opening for political actors to target their enemies?
4) What is the relative balance of power and capabilities among the key actors? Are the potential perpetrators powerful enough internally to do whatever they want vis a vis their enemies? Do the would-be victims have any capacity to fight back, or have important international supporters who might be expected to come to their defense, at least diplomatically?
5) What is your assessment of the likelihood of a human rights crisis? What is your evaluation of the level of probability of such a crisis, and what form would it take. Think in terms of the following framework for organizing your forecast. Is a human rights crisis in your country……..
1) highly unlikely
2) unlikely
3) indeterminate
4) likely
5) highly likely

Analyze the relative impact of both the underlying conditions and the precipitating factors that contributed to your assessment? What conditions or decisions would need to occur in order for you to predict with confidence that a crisis will occur? How many people would be affected?
6) What could be done inside the country to reduce the threat? What can other nations, intergovernmental organizations like the United Nations Security Council, and non governmental organizations like Amnesty International do to reduce the likelihood that such a crisis will occur? What would be your advice to international decision makers about how to proceed?
All papers must be organized according to the outline below:
Introduction: Provide brief background on the country and why it is important to study the prospects for major human rights violations. 500 words approximately.
Historical Background: A brief review of historical developments leading up to the current potential for major human rights violations. 1000 words approximately.
Analysis of Underlying Risk of Major Human Rights Violations (MHRV): Based on an empirical analysis of factors commonly linked to MHRV, how do you assess the prospects for such an event? 1000 words approximately.
Analysis of Current Events and Key Political Figures: Based on current political, economic and social events in the country, the interests and powers of key political leaders (whether inside or outside the government), and other relevant contemporaneous events, how do you assess the likelihood of a MHRV? 3000 words approximately.
Conclusion: Summarize your argument. Note any weaknesses or caveats in your predictions. What steps might be taken to forestall a MHRV? 1000 words approximately.

The paper must be between 3,000 and 5,000 words; provide at least 15 references; and should be formatted according to the Chicago Style,