A decision tree

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Embed material concepts, principles, and theories from text book which require supporting citations along with at least ** four scholarly peer-reviewed references in supporting your answer**.

Text book
Stevenson, W. (2018). Operations management (13th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. ISBN-13:9781259667473

APA format edition APA 7

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The supplement to Chapter 5 in your textbook describes and develops several decision trees.
Address the following requirements:

* Develop a decision tree for the case described.

* Explain the process of developing a decision tree, draw the decision tree (include the decision tree in an appendix showing chance nodes, probabilities, outcomes, expected values, and net expected value).

* Defend your final decision based on your decision tree.

Case for consideration—An operations manager for a cereal producer is faced with a choice of:

1- A large-scale investment (A) to purchase a new cooker which could produce a substantial pay-off in terms of increased revenue net of costs but requires an investment of 3,750,000 Saudi Riyal. After extensive market research it is thought that there is a 40% chance that a pay-off of 9,375,000 Saudi Riyal will be realized, but there is a 60% chance that it will be only 3,000,000 Saudi Riyal.

2- A smaller scale project (B) to refurbish an existing cooker. At 1,875,000 Saudi Riyal, this option is less costly but produces a lower pay-off. Again, extensive research data suggests a 30% chance of a gain of 3,750,000 Saudi Riyal but a 70% chance of it being only 1,875,000 Saudi Riyal.

3- Continuing the present operation without change (C) which cost nothing, but produces no pay-off.

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